Plain Politics

Where the parties stand

A sample-weighted trend across every published national poll, shown with the uncertainty attached. A single poll is a noisy measurement — the band matters more than the line.

Labor
28.0%
95% range 27.1–29.0
One Nation
27.3%
95% range 26.4–28.2
Coalition
20.4%
95% range 19.6–21.3
Greens
12.9%
95% range 12.2–13.6
Others
11.3%
95% range 10.7–12.0

Primary vote trend

134 polls from 13 polling organisations, fieldwork between 18 May 2025 and 16 July 2026.

0%10%20%30%40%Jun 2025SepDecMar 2026JunLabor 28.0One Nation 27.3Coalition 20.4Greens 12.9Others 11.3
Shaded bands are 95% confidence intervals on a sample-weighted local trend (21-day bandwidth), widened by a factor of 1.7 to allow for house effects and other non-sampling error. Marks are individual polls. Where a pollster does not report a series it is shown as “not reported” and excluded — never estimated. Poll figures are facts published by the named polling organisations; where available each record links to that organisation's own release. Table structure and aggregation sourced from Wikipedia, 'Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election' (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Known limitations of this dataset

7 of 134 records carry a caveat. We publish these rather than quietly dropping or patching them, because a silently “clean” dataset is the easiest kind to mislead with.

  • Essential · fieldwork to 29 Jun

    Published two-party-preferred (46/48) does not sum to 100 — typically an undecided share is included. Excluded as not comparable.

  • Essential · fieldwork to 25 May

    Published two-party-preferred (48/47) does not sum to 100 — typically an undecided share is included. Excluded as not comparable.

  • Essential · fieldwork to 27 Apr

    Published two-party-preferred (47/49) does not sum to 100 — typically an undecided share is included. Excluded as not comparable.

  • Essential · fieldwork to 23 Mar

    Published two-party-preferred (46/47) does not sum to 100 — typically an undecided share is included. Excluded as not comparable.

  • Essential · fieldwork to 24 Nov

    Reported primary votes sum to 102.0%, not 100% — transcribed as published.

  • YouGov · fieldwork to 30 Sep

    Reported primary votes sum to 107.0%, not 100% — transcribed as published.

  • Wolf & Smith · fieldwork to 30 Jul

    Not reported by this pollster: grn, onp, oth. Recorded as null, never estimated.