Plain Politics

State politics

Victoria

Victorians elect all 88 members of the Legislative Assembly on 28 November 2026. The date is fixed in the Electoral Act, not chosen by the premier. Below is every published poll of Assembly voting intention, shown with the uncertainty attached.

Coalition
26.7%
95% range 25.428.0
Labor
26.2%
95% range 24.927.5
One Nation
25.6%
95% range 24.326.9
Greens
12.3%
95% range 11.413.3
Others
8.5%
95% range 7.79.3

Primary vote trend

48 polls from 8 polling organisations, fieldwork between 16 February 2023 and 24 July 2026.

0%10%20%30%40%50%Mar 2023JunSepDecMar 2024JunSepDecMar 2025JunSepDecMar 2026JunCoalition 26.7Labor 26.2One Nation 25.6Greens 12.3Others 8.5
Shaded bands are 95% confidence intervals on a sample-weighted local trend (21-day bandwidth), widened by a factor of 1.7 to allow for house effects and other non-sampling error. Marks are individual polls. Where a pollster does not report a series it is shown as “not reported” and excluded — never estimated. Poll figures are facts published by the named polling organisations; where available each record links to that organisation's own release. Table structure and aggregation sourced from Wikipedia, 'Opinion polling for the 2026 Victorian state election' (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Who is funding the campaign

Disclosed within 21 days

Victoria requires a donation of $1,290 or more to be disclosed within 21 days, and publishes it straight away. The same donation made to a federal party would sit in an annual return until the February after the financial year ends. That is why this section shows money arriving during the campaign rather than after it — the register held 3,876 donations when it was retrieved on 28 July 2026, the most recent dated 28 July 2026.

Since the 2022 election
$4,577,169
1,610 donations
Whole register
$10,370,273
from 2020
Distinct donors
2,471
145 recipients
Not yet reconciled
253
one side has not lodged

Largest recipients, whole register

  • AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY - VICTORIAN BRANCH$3,335,461
    1,443 donations · $14,708 not money
  • LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA - VICTORIAN DIVISION$2,112,154
    716 donations · $15,797 not money
  • Australian Greens Victoria$600,648
    430 donations · $86,574 not money
  • NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA - VICTORIA$375,472
    168 donations · $9,937 not money
  • Sophie Torney$316,740
    60 donations · $35,000 not money
  • Paul Hopper$283,900
    24 donations
  • Shima Ibuki$255,120
    18 donations
  • VICTORIAN SOCIALISTS$188,828
    74 donations
  • Anthony Lupton$182,040
    19 donations
  • Kate Lardner$131,980
    47 donations · $21,555 not money

Largest donors

  • Climate 200 Pty Ltd$373,71210×
  • Paul Hopper$296,57027×
  • Anthony Lupton$156,9909×
  • Maya Tesa$132,97817×
  • Jason McClintock$110,0002×
  • Malik Zaveer$70,0004×
  • Sophie Torney$55,0003×
  • Darren Natale$54,74916×

Most recent

  • David Hall$5,000
    to Shima Ibuki · 28 Jul
  • Ken Phillips$1,500
    to LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA - VICTORIAN DIVISION · 23 Jul
  • Graeme Booth $5,000
    to Shima Ibuki · 22 Jul
  • Anna Roberts$5,000
    to Jessica Marsh · 18 Jul (received) · Donor Unreconciled
  • Costas Builders Mart Pty Ltd$3,200
    to LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA - VICTORIAN DIVISION · 16 Jul
  • Nimbin Hemp Inc$5,100
    to Legalise Cannabis Victoria · 16 Jul
  • Nimbin Hemp Inc$5,100
    to Legalise Cannabis Victoria · 16 Jul
  • Oscar Yildiz$7,876
    to Oscar Yildiz · 15 Jul · Recipient Unreconciled

What this register does and does not say

  • A donation is disclosed twice, once by the donor and once by the recipient, and the register calls a record reconciled only once both have lodged. An unreconciled record is one side's account of a donation the other has not yet confirmed. It is published here with its status attached, never dropped and never treated as settled.
  • Each side supplies its own date, so an unreconciled record carries only that side's. Where the donor has not lodged there is no date the donation was made, and the date shown is the date the recipient says they received it. Which one is being shown is recorded on every record rather than left to be guessed.
  • Not every donation is money. The register also records property, services and loans, which are valued rather than paid. They are counted separately from cash rather than added into a single total that would read as money received.
  • Only donations at or above the disclosure threshold appear. The threshold is indexed and has changed over the period covered, so a count of donations is not a measure of how many people gave.
  • The Party column is empty for a donation to an independent candidate or member. That is a fact about the recipient, not a missing value.
  • This is the register as at the retrieval date on this page. Victoria's 21-day rule means a donation made in the last three weeks may not be disclosed yet, so the most recent weeks always undercount.

Source: Victorian Electoral Commission — disclosed donations. Victorian Electoral Commission, licensed under CC BY 4.0 (DataVic Access Policy).

What happened last time

First preferences at the 26 November 2022 election. This is a measurement, not a poll — it carries no sampling error, so it is held apart from the trend above rather than drawn into it.

Labor
37.0%
Coalition
34.5%
Greens
11.5%
One Nation
0.3%
Others
17.1%

Source: Victorian Electoral Commission.

Known limitations of this dataset

  • One Nation is not reported before 10 February 2026

    These tables carried no One Nation column until then, so earlier polls record it as not reported rather than as zero — its support in those years is inside Others. The line starts partway along the chart because that is when pollsters began publishing the figure, not because the vote appeared that week.

  • Lower house only

    Legislative Council polling is published but excluded here. The upper house is elected by proportional representation from multi-member regions, so a statewide share means something different there and is not comparable with these figures.

  • Freshwater · fieldwork to 8 Jun

    Reported primary votes sum to 98.0%, not 100% — transcribed as published.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 7 Dec

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge/Accent · fieldwork to 8 Dec

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Freshwater · fieldwork to 24 Nov

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Newspoll · fieldwork to 20 Nov

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Freshwater · fieldwork to 17 Nov

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • DemosAU · fieldwork to 27 Oct

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 12 Oct

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge/Accent · fieldwork to 14 Oct

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge · fieldwork to 11 Sep

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • DemosAU · fieldwork to 9 Sep

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 17 Aug

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Newspoll · fieldwork to 30 Jun

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge · fieldwork to 30 Jun

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 30 Mar

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge · fieldwork to 2 Apr

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • DemosAU · fieldwork to 21 Mar

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge · fieldwork to 20 Nov

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 10 Nov

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge · fieldwork to 3 Oct

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge · fieldwork to 18 Sep

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 7 Sep

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Wolf & Smith · fieldwork to 29 Aug

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge · fieldwork to 5 Aug

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 14 Jul

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge · fieldwork to 7 Jun

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 19 May

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 24 Mar

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge · fieldwork to 20 Mar

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge · fieldwork to 12 Dec

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 3 Dec

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Redbridge · fieldwork to 14 Sep

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Roy Morgan · fieldwork to 20 Jul

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Roy Morgan · fieldwork to 22 May

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 22 Apr

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

  • Resolve · fieldwork to 18 Feb

    Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.

Poll figures are facts published by the named polling organisations; where available each record links to that organisation's own release. Table structure and aggregation sourced from Wikipedia, 'Opinion polling for the 2026 Victorian state election' (CC BY-SA 4.0).